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Forum:2009 Atlantic hurricane season
October September's last TWO has no cyclone formation expected for 48 hours,and October has already begun by UTC.So what will this month hold?--L.E./ 23:59, September 30, 2009 (UTC) :Sky, I know it's somewhat hostile for anything to develop. But I still believe that Mother Nature may pop a surprise. Who knows... Storm's Eye 14:31, October 1, 2009 (UTC) ::Hmm.. there's an AoI at low risk on NHC right over the Azores... --Patteroast 18:25, October 1, 2009 (UTC) 09L.GRACE 90L.INVEST Oh. The AoI over the Azores is an invest. Still, low risk. --Patteroast 21:15, October 1, 2009 (UTC) :DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ANTICIPATED,quoth the TWO.--L.E./ 23:56, October 1, 2009 (UTC) ::Whoa!Whoa!Whoa!WHAT JUST HAPPENED NHC HAS PUT A LOW NE OF THE AZORES AT HIGH RISK.! Tropical Storm Grace Upgraded. :Habawahabahawha??? That was unexpected. --Patteroast 11:34, October 5, 2009 (UTC) ::What's that? The season gonna mad? -- 14:58, October 5, 2009 (UTC) :::They're referencing Ireland now, this storm is strange. Dare I ask what could possibly be next? 18:08, October 5, 2009 (UTC) ::::Sky, I know it's somewhat hostile for anything to develop. But I still believe that Mother Nature '''may' pop a surprise. Who knows... Storm's Eye 14:31, October 1, 2009 (UTC)'' well, it seems that Mother Nature has popped a surprise. - 23:24, October 5, 2009 (UTC) :::::As fun as that was, NHC just issued its last advisory, saying Grace has been absorbed by a front. --Patteroast 03:16, October 6, 2009 (UTC) ::::::This is like the a millionth time something like this has happened this year. Im tired of the NHC always being conservative. They need to learn to jump the gun sometimes. Also, Grace inst not done yet lets what the UKMET (not the model) has for Grace. Basins gone dead The Basins are dead again. The WPAC is finally having a major a parade of storms, though much much worse has happened. Wouldn't be surprised if the Atlantic had the latest finish since 1914. The EPAC has been rocking and rolling all year long. NIO is dead. like the Atlantic. The WPAC is still below average. 10L.HENRI AoI: Halfway between Cape Verde and Lesser Antilles An area on NHC that doesn't flatly state it won't develop? Crazy. "SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AT IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH." Still, low risk. And not even showing up as an invest at this point. --Patteroast 15:04, October 4, 2009 (UTC) 91L.INVEST Invest'd. NHC still says slow development is possible. --Patteroast 13:46, October 5, 2009 (UTC) :"...THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO..." and up to medium risk. --Patteroast 03:17, October 6, 2009 (UTC) Tropical Storm Henri No advisory yet, but here's the special TWO at 3:15 PM EDT: SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THERE HAS BEEN A RAPID INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 525 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM IS ALREADY PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...AND ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED ON TROPICAL STORM HENRI AT 5 PM AST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. --Hurricane Diana 19:30, October 6, 2009 (UTC) :Well... that takes the cake for most enthusiastic TWO about an invest... no 'if trends continue' business, simply 'advisories will be initiated'.--Patteroast 20:04, October 6, 2009 (UTC) ::Hard to disagree with that. Some of that may be them being somewhat bored from the recent lull (outside of the one day they tracked Grace) so who knows, maybe they wanted something to do. At least it'll miss the Antilles according to that, so for now it's just something to track and an interest to shipping. --Hurricane Diana 20:08, October 6, 2009 (UTC) :::Winds at 40 mph, expected to weaken and become a remnant low by tomorrow. --Hurricane Diana 21:01, October 6, 2009 (UTC) ::::Henri got a little stronger than NHC seemed to expect, but it looks like the decline has begun. --Patteroast 13:54, October 7, 2009 (UTC) :::::Oh wow, it did. I missed it by combination of classes and most of my attention going to Melor in the West Pacific. The shear's just too strong for it to be able to fight it off, now it can weaken like they expected. --Hurricane Diana 19:30, October 7, 2009 (UTC) ::::::Remnant low now, not too surprising. That area's ripped apart a lot of storms this year. --Hurricane Diana 22:12, October 8, 2009 (UTC) Low chance of redevelopment on the 8PM TWO, probably doesn't mean much but it's there. --Hurricane Diana 23:40, October 10, 2009 (UTC) 92L.INVEST AoI: Northeast of French Guiana New AoI up on NHC, low risk. "DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR..." --Patteroast 13:56, October 7, 2009 (UTC) 92L.INVEST Invest'd, but NHC says: "ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED BEFORE IT INTERACTS WITH LAND LATER THIS EVENING." --Patteroast 17:46, October 8, 2009 (UTC) :I had a feeling it was a little too far south to develop right now, though I'd watch it just in case nature springs another surprise on us. --Hurricane Diana 22:05, October 8, 2009 (UTC) ::Looks like it's crashed into northern Venezuela. Off NHC. --Patteroast 20:54, October 9, 2009 (UTC) 93L.INVEST AoI: West-Southwest of Cape Verde A second blob appeared on NHC. Doesn't look like much though, and NHC says, "UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM..." --Patteroast 08:47, October 20, 2009 (UTC) 93L.INVEST Invest'd, but it sure doesn't look like much. NHC still says it won't develop. --Patteroast 20:13, October 20, 2009 (UTC) :No longer listed on NHC or NRL. --Patteroast 10:31, October 22, 2009 (UTC) 94L.INVEST AoI: Southwestern Caribbean Jeff Masters over at Wunderground has been eying this for a couple days. NHC finally has it showing up as a low risk. Quote: "ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWESTWARD." --Patteroast 08:47, October 20, 2009 (UTC) 94L.INVEST Invest'd, looking pretty good, but too close to land to be really enthusiastic about development. Either way, Nicaragua's getting a lot of rain. --Patteroast 20:13, October 20, 2009 (UTC) :Uninvest'd. NHC still shows it at low risk, but it seems unlikely it's going to do much in the next couple days. --Patteroast 10:31, October 22, 2009 (UTC) ::Well, it brought rain, that's about it. --Hurricane Diana 06:42, October 23, 2009 (UTC) 95L.INVEST AoI: Near Bahamas New blob up on NHC, low risk. "UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE SYSTEM DRIFTS WESTWARD." --Patteroast 10:31, October 22, 2009 (UTC) :Eh, only worth watching because you never know, looks like there's not much to this one. --Hurricane Diana 06:42, October 23, 2009 (UTC) 95L.INVEST Extended to the south and invest'd. However, NHC says: "THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT." So yeah. --Patteroast 17:04, October 23, 2009 (UTC) 96L.INVEST AoI: East-Southeast of Bermuda Not sure if it's still October in UTC, but it's still October for me, and this has been up at least a day, so I think it's safe to put under October. Low risk, not invest'd, but NHC says: "THIS LOW COULD SLOWLY ACQUIRE SOME SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS." --Patteroast 01:08, November 1, 2009 (UTC) 96L.INVEST Invest'd. Still low risk, NHC currently sez: "THIS LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ACQUIRE SOME SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD." --Patteroast 16:40, November 1, 2009 (UTC) :This low continues to impress me. It already has a subtropical appearance to it. It's been 12 years since the Atlantic failed to make it to the 'I' storm. Stay tuned. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 19:34, November 1, 2009 (UTC) ::Up to medium risk. C'mon Ida... --Patteroast 20:04, November 1, 2009 (UTC) :::High risk! Quoth NHC: "THE LOW APPEARS TO BE ACQUIRING SOME SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS... BUT IT IS STILL ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THIS TIME. IF THE LOW LOSES ITS FRONTAL PROPERTIES...IT COULD BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO..." On the other hand, the convection's looking really thin now. If this thing decides it wants to happen, it doesn't have much time. --Patteroast 10:32, November 2, 2009 (UTC) ::::Long Pooff. :::::I feel like this one got cheated. I strongly believe that this system was at least briefly subtropical. The only reason it wasn't Ida was because strong shear prevented convection from sustaining itself near the center once the system lost its baroclinic energy source. As it was, I still feel it was a subtropical cyclone, if briefly. Convection flared overnight and is only just now dissipating. It's still there, but it has lost significant organization. It maintained deep convection near the center for about 12-14 hours. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 19:00, November 3, 2009 (UTC) November 11L.IDA 97L.INVEST Now this one's interesting. It's this tiny little system in the extreme SW Caribbean that showed up on the TWO this morning. It's already up to medium risk, NHC says conditions are favorable and the system is gradually getting better organized. And from the look of the models, the stronger it gets, the more time it will have over water since with the current atmospheric pattern, a deeper system would track more to the north. Stay tuned. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 19:09, November 3, 2009 (UTC) :This one looks like it really has a good shot at getting a name. --Patteroast 20:41, November 3, 2009 (UTC) ::Looking at some recent model runs... HRWF is predicting a tropical storm landfall in Nicaragua, heading back into open water, and redeveloping into a storm again while headed north into the Gulf of Mexico. GFDL thinks it'll become a hurricane and wobble north while narrowly avoiding land. --Patteroast 06:19, November 4, 2009 (UTC) :::We're at high risk, just a reminder that frost outside doesn't mean the end of hurricane season. 1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE INCREASED THIS MORNING AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME TODAY. --Hurricane Diana 12:04, November 4, 2009 (UTC) Tropical Depression 11 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... Storm's Eye 15:38, November 4, 2009 (UTC) :Wow, I underestimated this storm. I knew it had potential but it is much better organized than I originally thought. I was thinking tropical depression and maybe a weak tropical storm but from what NHC is saying, it looks like this thing is going to keep strengthening until it runs into something. It's especially interesting that they restrengthen it over the western Caribbean. I have my doubts that it will be able to survive the mountains of Honduras ''or the strong westerly shear that dominates much of the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Unless that shear relaxes, I don't see this thing passing Honduras. BTW, CIMSS already labels it a tropical storm. It wouldn't surprise me if we have Ida in about an hour. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 20:53, November 4, 2009 (UTC) Tropical Storm Ida Upgraded with advisory two! --Patteroast 21:22, November 4, 2009 (UTC) :Special statement on NHC... winds at 65 mph and a hurricane watch posted! Wow. --Patteroast 22:50, November 4, 2009 (UTC) ::Dude! I had a feeling we'd have Ida by now but man this thing is going off. Now that I finally look at it, I can see why. Ida's found a wonderful little oasis down there. Wind shear over the storm right now is virtually nonexistent and the water's nice and warm. It really helps that this storm is so small. The conditions are perfect for a storm like Ida. Ida reminds me a bit of Beta in 2005. It formed in the exact same area and was a small but ultimately intense hurricane that hit the central Nicaraguan coast. Now, Ida is unlikely to even approach Beta's intensity (though the way it's going, I wouldn't put it past it) and Beta had a more loopy track but the similarities are interesting. This is starting to get ugly for Nicaragua. If Ida pulls a Humberto, it could be really serious for those people down there. They need to get ready ''now. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 01:37, November 5, 2009 (UTC) :::... the latest GFDL run is terrifying. It has Ida avoiding Nicaragua, heading straight north until it makes landfall on the western tip of Cuba... AS A CATEGORY FIVE. Not that that seems terribly likely... but it's not a good thing to see. At this point it seems about equally likely that Ida will die over Central America or it'll regenerate when it gets over water again. --Patteroast 05:34, November 5, 2009 (UTC) ::That's what the forecasts say, a landfall on Nicaragua and re-emerging as a storm. I don't expect it to hit western Cuba as a cat. 5, but it certainly isn't out of the question. 11:53, November 5, 2009 (UTC) Where can you find GFDL models of past storms? Atomic7732 18:56, January 23, 2010 (UTC) Hurricane Ida ...IDA BECOMES A HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE COAST OF NICARAGUA... ??? ??? ??? Wow! Storm's Eye 13:15, November 5, 2009 (UTC) :Wow indeed. I don't think anybody saw this coming. I know I didn't; I thought the season was over. Just goes to show that Nature follows her own rules. For the record, Ida just became the first ATL hurricane to strike a landmass this year. Hurricane Bill was downgraded to a tropical storm at landfall in Newfoundland in post-analysis. Bill did, however, bring hurricane conditions to the coast of Nova Scotia. And 2007 remains the only season since 1989 that the 'I' wasn't a hurricane. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 16:47, November 5, 2009 (UTC) Tropical Depression Ida Down to depression over land. Now the waiting game to see if it restrengthens when it gets back over water... (and how much rain it's going to dump over Nicaragua and Honduras...) --Patteroast 08:08, November 6, 2009 (UTC) :Looks like it's holding its own well enough over land. Probably should make it back over water. --Hurricane Diana 16:37, November 6, 2009 (UTC) ::Back over water now. Expected to strengthen... there's some very warm water ahead of it, but also some strong shear. NHC makes it a strong storm heading into the Gulf, but it's really uncertain what'll happen from where. Might even manage to get into the Gulf and dissipate there without making further landfall. But for now the Yucatan, Cuba, the Caymans, and Belize should keep a wary eye to their south. --Patteroast 00:39, November 7, 2009 (UTC) :::Somewhat odd long-range track if you ask me... Turning extratropical in the Gulf then swinging southeastward, guess tracks like this should be expected in November though. --Hurricane Diana 02:51, November 7, 2009 (UTC) Tropical Storm Ida (2nd time) From the update statement. Can't wait for the next advisory...things may get extraordinary. Storm's Eye 07:21, November 7, 2009 (UTC) :Tropical storm watches up for both sides of the Yucatan Channel: the northeast tip of the Yucatan and the west tip of Cuba. --Patteroast 08:48, November 7, 2009 (UTC) ::It looks like Ida is moving more northward than northwest. If it continues to strengthen, and becomes a hurricane, it will most likely turn over western Cuba and hit Florida like Hurricane Irene did in 1999. 21:07, November 7, 2009 (UTC) Hurricane Ida (2nd time) Forecast now says Ida will peak as a cat 2! --Patteroast 07:55, November 8, 2009 (UTC) :Special advisory: Ida is at 100 mph, a cat 2. Hurricane Watches up from Louisiana to the Florida panhandle. Note that this does not include New Orleans. --Hurricane Diana 18:19, November 8, 2009 (UTC) ::It does, however, include Mobile, where I'm now typing this. The GFDL brings Ida right up Mobile Bay as a Cat. 2, with the western eyewall passing directly over where I'm sitting now. This has really gotten interesting. Here's my meteorological analysis: It's a Category 2 now. The shear only gets worse form here. That and cooler water are forecast to gradually, but not quickly, wear it down as it moves north. At some point, that cold front is gonna gobble Ida up like a turkey sandwich. The million-dollar question is when. My only concern is that the forecast point of gobbling keeps drifting farther north and the forecast intensity at that time keeps going up. In order for Ida to hit the Gulf Coast as a stronger, tropical system, it would have to beat the cold front here, and I just don't see that happening. Ida's expected to move briskly through the Gulf, but it's gonna have to really book it if it wants to beat that front. Also, the cold front will be pushing a blast of shear ahead of it. It's Ida's kryptonite...our Superman. Regardless, of what happens, it promises to be an interesting 36-48 hours. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury'']] 21:03, November 8, 2009 (UTC) :::Looks like Alabama's taking the landfall... luckily the storm seems to have been sheared almost completely to bits by now. --Patteroast 12:21, November 10, 2009 (UTC) ::::Last advisory, extratropical. --Patteroast 15:08, November 10, 2009 (UTC) 98L.INVEST Newly invest'd, south of Bermuda. NHC has it at low risk and says: "ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO OCCUR..." --Patteroast 12:23, November 10, 2009 (UTC) Retirement at a Glance i dont think any. :Yeah, I'd have to agree. The only storms with any sort of impact were Bill, Claudette, and Fred. Bill did less damage than all retired storms other than Klaus, Claudette had minimal effect, and Fred's impacts weren't caused while it was a tropical system. Still have a month and a half of hurricane season left... fingers crossed... --Patteroast 03:36, October 19, 2009 (UTC) ::As of now, nothing's really worth retiring, I agree. You never know though, it's only October 19... --Hurricane Diana 01:15, October 20, 2009 (UTC) :All I hope is we don't get any more storms by now. November may be a bad month still, if it pulls a Michelle, Lenny, Paloma, ect, but based on what's happened earlier this year in this basin, and worldwide, the chances of that happening are second to none. 03:29, October 23, 2009 (UTC) ::Fred did not do any damage. :::Was Ida bad enough to Nicaragua that they'd request a retirement?-- 21:54, November 8, 2009 (UTC) If the over 90 deaths in El Salvador is attributed to Ida, she would have the best shot at retirement. 23:12, November 8, 2009 (UTC) Here are my guesses: * Ana - <1% - caused very little damage and no fatalities. * Bill - 20% - Damage total unknown, but probably not severe. However, considering that Canada was the main country impacted, it may have a chance. * Claudette - 2% - Minimal damage and only 2 deaths. * Danny - 1% - Minimal damage and only one death. * Erika - <1% - Minimal damage, no deaths. * Fred - 10% - Caused significant damage, but not as a tropical system. * Grace - <1% - Minimal damage, no deaths. * Henri - 0% - nearly a fishspinner. * Ida - 55% - Significant death toll, 80% of houses destroyed in Sandy Bay Sirpe, These are my guesses. 03:20, November 11, 2009 (UTC) Ida was not responsible for the deaths, another low pressure system was. So I would give it about 15 - 20% just as likely as Bill to be retired. -- 16:41, November 11, 2009 (UTC) :I still stand by no retirements. If I had to put a number on it? Maybe 5% chance of anything getting retired. Ida wasn't responsible for the flooding in El Salvador. And where did this idea that Canada likes retiring things for the hell of it come from? The only storm they alone have requested retirement for was Juan, which was the worst storm to hit Nova Scotia in a century. Bill isn't in the same league as Juan. The only reason I'm going as high as 5% is because some damage done near Ida or by Ida's remnants might be incorrectly attributed. --Patteroast 21:12, November 11, 2009 (UTC) (Officially) over Well, we have good news about this year: After such a long time of destructive, powerful hurricanes in the past several years, just like 2006, we finally caught a break. I hope that this season signaled the end of the 1995-now hot streak of activity in the Atlantic basin, and I hope that the next year is just like this one. 01:34, December 2, 2009 (UTC)